Thursday, April 14, 2011

Greek Debt - the Endgame Scenarios

by Lee C. Buchheit and G. Mitu Gulati

(Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP - New York Office and Duke University School of Law respectively)

April 9, 2011

Perhaps Greece -- a country with a debt to GDP already approaching 150 percent and set to move even higher -- avoids a debt restructuring. Perhaps not.

What are the possible scenarios if Greece cannot return to the capital markets to refinance this gargantuan debt stock once its EU/IMF bailout package expires in two years time? What would a Greek debt restructuring look like after mid-2013? And (sharp intake of breath here) what would happen if such a debt restructuring were undertaken before that point?

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